Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
