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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.