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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.