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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still