Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
