What Makes The Current US Shutdown Distinct (and Harder to Resolve)?
Government closures are a repeat element of US politics – but this one feels particularly intractable because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time as each side – including the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
These are several key factors in which things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to demonstrate they have listened.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Opposing the Republican spending plan carries electoral dangers that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The President himself stated recently that the shutdown provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary described this as "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust on either side
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks among political opponents aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, as both sides blaming each other for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious toward resolution, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the representative is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.
The affected legislator with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Experts project about 40% of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate that it could shave approximately 0.2% from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.